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2. STATISTICAL NEEDS OF ASTRONOMY TODAY

Contemporary astronomy abounds in questions of a statistical nature. In addition to exploratory data analysis and simple heuristic (usually linear) modeling common in other fields, astronomers also often interpret data in terms of complicated non-linear models based on deterministic astrophysical processes. The phenomena studied must obey known behaviors of atomic and nuclear physics, gravitation and mechanics, thermodynamics and radiative processes, and so forth. `Modeling' data may thus involves both the selection of a model family based on an astrophysical understanding of the conditions under study, and a statistical effort to find parameters for the specified model. A wide variety of issues thus arise:

From a superficial examination of the astronomical literature (2), we can show that such questions are very common today. Of appeq 15, 000 refereed papers published annually, 1% have "statistics" or "statistical" in their title, 5% have "statistics" in their abstract, 10% treat time-variable objects, 5 - 10% (est.) present or analyze multivariate datasets, and 5 - 10% (est.) fit parametric models. Accounting for overlaps, we roughly estimate that around appeq 3, 000 distinct studies each year require non-trivial statistical methodologies. Roughly 10% of these are principally involved with statistical methods; indeed, some of these purport to develop new methods or improve on established ones.



2 Such bibliometric measures are easily accomplished as the entire astronomical research literature is on-line (in full text at subscribing institutions) through the NASA-supported Astrophysics Data System, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html. Back.

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